Which company has the best AI model end of March?
893,131 Vol.4 months ago (Mar-31-2026 07:00:00 PM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
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RESOLVED
Anthropic
$172,301 Vol.
100.0%
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RESOLVED
Other
$211,953 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
OpenAI
$140,030 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Google
$209,406 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
xAI
$159,440 Vol.
0.0%
DescriptionThis event predicts which company's model ranks #1 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard (Overall category) at 12:00 PT on March 31, 2026. Resolution is based on the numeric Elo rating in the main table. Only models with a verified, stable Elo score qualify; models marked "Preliminary" or "Pre-release" are ignored. If the top-ranked entry is "Preliminary," the highest-ranked model with a stable score determines the winner.
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- The company name refers to the primary owner (e.g., Google for Gemini). If multiple versions of the same series occupy the top spots, the parent company wins. If two models tie in Elo, the one with more votes in the "Votes" column of the main Leaderboard serves as the tie-breaker. If an anonymous "alias" model holds #1, resolution is delayed until its identity is officially revealed by the provider or LMSYS.
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- Only the default "Overall" leaderboard category qualifies. Specialized tabs like "Coding" do not trigger resolution. If the LMSYS site is inaccessible for 48 hours prior to the deadline, the official Hugging Face mirror will be used. If the platform shuts down or changes its scoring system from Elo before Feb 28, the market is voided. Subsequent Elo adjustments or vote audits made after March 1 do not affect the result.
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- The closing time is 12:00 PT on March 31, 2026. Any attempt to use experimental site features is ignored. All outcomes are final once the identity of the top-ranked stable model is confirmed. Primary resolution is based on the official LMSYS Chatbot Arena data. This event measures the relative Elo performance of leading AI models at the end of March 2026.