Cocoa price change by Easter?
943,102 Vol.5 months ago (Apr-02-2026 05:30:00 PM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
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RESOLVED
Down 0–10%
$271,018 Vol.
100.0%
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RESOLVED
Up >10%
$268,078 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Down >10%
$181,699 Vol.
0.0%
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RESOLVED
Up 0–10%
$222,306 Vol.
0.0%
DescriptionThis event tracks the percentage price change of the front-month ICE New York Cocoa Futures contract between the market close on February 17, 2026, and the final settlement price before Easter Sunday, April 5, 2026. The baseline price is the official settlement price of the May 2026 (CCK26) contract at the end of the first full trading day after the Presidents' Day holiday, which is February 17, 2026. This period monitors the market response to the projected 287,000-tonne global cocoa surplus and the start of the West African mid-crop harvest.
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- The event resolves based on the percentage difference between the baseline price and the final available settlement price on April 2, 2026 (the last trading day before the Good Friday and Easter break). The calculation is: (Final Price minus Base Price) divided by Base Price, then multiplied by 100. All calculations are performed to two decimal places. Categories are mutually exclusive: a result of exactly +10.00% falls into "Up 0–10%," while +10.01% or higher falls into "Up >10%."
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- Resolution is strictly based on the official "Settlement Price" of the May 2026 contract on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Intraday price spikes that do not reflect in the final settlement are ignored. If the May 2026 contract experiences a technical halt or lack of liquidity on the resolution date, the last verified settlement price published by ICE for that contract before the deadline remains the decider.
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- Primary resolution is based on official ICE data. This market measures whether the bearish trend of early 2026 (spot price approximately 3,581 USD in mid-February) persists through the holiday season or if supply-chain tightening in Ghana triggers a price recovery.