CME vs. CFTC: Will CME Group's Stock (CME) Close Above $250 Before July 28, 2026?
137,364 Vol.in 8 days (Jul-28-2026 11:59:00 PM UTC)
DescriptionCME Group (NASDAQ: CME) lost ~19-20% after the CFTC approved Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual futures (BTCPERP) on May 29, 2026, and now trades near $224 (July 1, 2026) — deeply oversold (RSI ~23). CME sued the CFTC on June 18, 2026 (Case 1:26-cv-02157) arguing perps are swaps, not futures. Key catalysts include CME earnings on July 22, 2026 and a pending court ruling on CME's preliminary injunction motion. Analysts hold Buy ratings with targets of $273-$329.
- This event resolves YES if CME Group's stock (NASDAQ: CME) closes at or above $250.00 on any trading day on or before July 28, 2026 UTC.
- This event resolves NO if CME's closing price does not reach $250.00 by the deadline.
- 1. Specificity: CME must achieve an official NASDAQ closing price ≥ $250.00 on any single trading day.
- 2. Exclusion: Intraday highs that do not hold at close do NOT qualify. Pre- or after-market prices do NOT count.
- 3. Source Hierarchy: NASDAQ official closing price (nasdaq.com) primary. Bloomberg/Reuters secondary. Yahoo Finance (finance.yahoo.com) tertiary.
- 4. Timing: Must occur before July 28, 2026 UTC. Post-deadline resolves NO.
- 5. Cancellation Rule: If CME stock is suspended or delisted before July 28, 2026, the event resolves NO.