CLARITY Act Section 404: Will the Banks Land a Blow on the Stablecoin Yield Carve-Out Before the Aug 7 Recess?
42,943 Vol.in 24 days (Aug-08-2026 03:59:00 AM UTC)
Outcome
% Chance
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Text Weakened
$29,695 Vol.
35.0%
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Roll-Call Vote
$13,248 Vol.
28.0%
DescriptionSenate Banking advanced the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) 15-9 in May 2026 with the Tillis-Alsobrooks Section 404 compromise: passive stablecoin yield is banned, but rewards tied to "bona fide activities or bona fide transactions" are permitted. Banks (JPMorgan, ABA, BPI) call it a loophole and want a total ban. A merged Banking-Agriculture draft is expected in July, with floor action eyed for the week of July 20. Both are judged by Aug 7, 2026 23:59 ET (last day before recess) and cover H.R. 3633 or any Senate vehicle carrying the CLARITY text.
- TEXT WEAKENED: YES if (a) revised text narrowing or deleting the Section 404 exception is released by Senate Banking or Agriculture, either panel's Chair or Ranking Member, either party Leader, Sens. Tillis or Alsobrooks, or a Senate vehicle's sponsor; or (b) the Senate adopts such an amendment by ANY method (roll call, voice, unanimous consent, en bloc). Else NO.
- ROLL-CALL VOTE: YES if the Senate holds a recorded roll-call vote on a qualifying Section 404 amendment - one whose narrowing of Section 404 is a principal subject - adopted or rejected. Votes to table it, to waive a point of order against it, or on cloture on it count. A comprehensive substitute or merged-text vehicle does NOT count. Else NO.
- 1. Baseline: Section 404 as reported in the committee substitute (06/01/2026).
- 2. Specificity: narrowing = deleting the exception, restricting a permitted reward category (e.g. transaction rebates, market-making), or adding caps or eligibility limits.
- 3. Exclusion: amendments merely submitted without a vote; letters, statements, unfiled drafts, House text, rulemaking. Added disclosures or consistent definitions are not narrowing. If ambiguous, resolve NO.
- 4. Sources: Congress.gov priority; banking.senate.gov secondary; Reuters tertiary.
- 5. Timing: operative date is the filing, release, or vote date. The deadline is fixed regardless of recess changes; post-deadline resolves NO. Announced intent alone is not enough.